Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $137,724$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,360.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(128,360.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,451$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,112.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,112.6\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,560$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $157,814$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,619.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(151,619.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,369$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(696 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,294.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,294.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,430$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,967$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(47.5 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,947.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(51,947.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $165$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(4 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(258.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,181$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,734$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,514.3}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,514.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $281$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(271.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,146$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,307$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(485 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,224.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 80.0)}}\) (asimptote \(39,224.1\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $248$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(13.8 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{264.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(264.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,402$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $937$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(229 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{902.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(902.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(6.98 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16.8\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $326$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,795$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,662.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.3)}}\) (asimptote \(112,662.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $399$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(37 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{564.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(564.6\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,728$ on 2020-05-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,465$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(411 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,692.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 81.7)}}\) (asimptote \(76,692.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26$ on 2020-05-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 93.2)}}\) (asimptote \(87.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,076$ on 2020-05-25