Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $137,724$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,360.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(128,360.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,451$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,112.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,112.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,560$ on 2020-05-25

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $157,814$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,619.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(151,619.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,369$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(696 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,294.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,294.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,430$ on 2020-05-25

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,967$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(47.5 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,947.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 93.9)}}\) (asimptote \(51,947.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $165$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{258.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(258.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,181$ on 2020-05-25

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,734$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,514.3}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,514.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $281$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(271.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,146$ on 2020-05-25

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,307$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(485 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,224.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 80.0)}}\) (asimptote \(39,224.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $248$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(13.8 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{264.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(264.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,402$ on 2020-05-25

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $937$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(229 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{902.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(902.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(6.98 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $326$ on 2020-05-25

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,795$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,662.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.3)}}\) (asimptote \(112,662.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $399$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(37 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{564.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(564.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,728$ on 2020-05-25

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,465$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(411 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,692.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 81.7)}}\) (asimptote \(76,692.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 93.2)}}\) (asimptote \(87.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,076$ on 2020-05-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Thailand recovered 96%
Korea, South recovered 91%
Japan recovered 82%
Israel recovered 78%
Turkey recovered 59%
Georgia recovered 47%
Singapore recovered 22%

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,042$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,975.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 19.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,975.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(28.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 10.6)}}\) (asimptote \(55.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-05-25

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,225$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,613.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10,613.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $269$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(73.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(263.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $681$ on 2020-05-25

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,581$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,552.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,552.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $830$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(51.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{913.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 52.0)}}\) (asimptote \(913.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,139$ on 2020-05-25

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $731$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(84 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{750.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(750.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.77 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 27.0)}}\) (asimptote \(14.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $193$ on 2020-05-25